We term this the “seesaw effect.” Using a long‐term dataset of the Old World cotton bollworm (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in northern China, we tested this seesaw hypothesis by running a generalized additive model for the effects of the third generation moth in the preceding year, the winter air temperature, the number of winter days below a critical temperature and cumulative precipitation during winter on the demography of the overwintering moth.Results confirmed the existence of the seesaw effect of winter temperature change on overwintering populations.Many biological variables depend on the size of the organisms and on the environmental temperature.
The dotted line represent the output of a segmented regression, showing a break point around 293 K (20°C). We notice that the intrinsic growth rate r is positively correlated to temperature up to a point, beyond which it reaches a plateau. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Residual standard error: 0.274 on 11 degrees of freedom Number of iterations to convergence: 6 Achieved convergence tolerance: 9.568e-07 (1 observation deleted due to missingness)The parameter “aer” gives a measure of the steepness of the exponential curve. Enquist, (2013) Patterns of external branching link form and function across diverse plants, Ecology Letters , 16(8) , 1069-1078. Leu*, (2013) Using fractal geometry and universal growth curves as diagnostics for comparing tumor vasculature and metabolic rate with healthy tissue and for predicting response to drug therapy, Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems, Series B (DCDS-B) , 18(14) , 1077-1108. Savage , (2015) Scaling from traits to ecosystems: Developing a general trait driver theory via integrating trait-based and metabolic scaling theories, Advances in Ecological Research 52 , 249-318. O’Connor, (2014) A bioenergetic framework for the temperature dependence of trophic interactions, Ecology Letters 17(8) , 902-914.